The 2024 International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition will open for entries on February 1, and Real World Data Science is once again proud to be a sponsor.
Contestants are invited to submit predictions for the date cherry trees will bloom in 2024 at five different locations – Kyoto, Japan; Liestal-Weideli, Switzerland; Vancouver, Canada; and Washington, DC and New York City, USA.
The competition organisers will provide all the publicly available data they can find for the bloom dates of cherry trees in these locations, and contestants will then be challenged to use this data “in combination with any other publicly available data (e.g., climate data) to provide reproducible predictions of the peak bloom date.”
“For this competition, we seek accurate, interpretable predictions that offer strong narratives about the factors that determine when cherry trees bloom and the broader consequences for local and global ecosystems,” say the organisers. “Your task is to predict the peak bloom date for 2024 and to estimate a prediction interval, a lower and upper endpoint of dates during which peak bloom is most probable.”
So that organisers can reproduce the predictions, entrants must submit all data and code in a Quarto document.
There’s cash and prizes on offer for the best entries, including having your work featured on Real World Data Science. Head on over to the competition website for full details and rules.
And, if you are looking for some inspiration, check out this tutorial on the law of the flowering plants, written by Jonathan Auerbach, a co-organiser of the prediction competition.
Good luck to all entrants!
- Copyright and licence
- © 2024 Royal Statistical Society
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) International licence. Photo by AJ on Unsplash.
- How to cite
- Tarran, Brian. 2024. “When will the cherry trees bloom? Get ready to make and share your predictions!” Real World Data Science, January 18, 2024. URL